Sarah Kendzior: The Bellwether Battle

Sarah Kendzior

The midterms changed the battlefield, but not the war.

By Sarah Kendzior | Nov 5, 2026

On Election Day, I voted for my vote to count. Again.

I don’t know yet if my vote for my vote to count will be honored by the people who count my vote. There’s not great precedent for that here in Missouri.

For a decade, the Democratic party machine has lectured me to “vote harder”. We Missourians vote so hard, we voted for the same damn thing three times in two years. The third time was a vote for the same damn thing to be made law, as the state constitution decrees. But law stopped following the constitution long ago. Courts follow the whims of liars. I follow the money.

This is why Missouri is the bellwether state.

Sarah Kendzior’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Missouri used to be called the bellwether state for its century-long streak of picking the presidential winner. Our swing state status ended in 2008 when a Black man ran for president and operatives field-tested Citizens United tactics on our soil. Missouri is a petri dish for people who seek to end the American experiment.

Missouri is also a “trigger state”. It triggers old laws and new horrors. In 2022, after the Roe repeal, Missouri was the first US state to trigger a pre-existing ban on female bodily autonomy. I spent two years with my uterus as Missouri state property. Once a month, I considered pelting the legislature with receipts.

In 2024, I voted on a ballot initiative to get the right to my body back. It passed. The Missouri legislature said, Screw you, woman, we don’t care what you want, and contested it. Courts debated how human I am relative to my husband. They were leaning toward less, so Missourians made yet another ballot initiative. Ballot initiatives are a state growth industry, like fentanyl and firecrackers. This one said that when voters approve a citizen initiative, the state legislature must actually enact it.

On Election Day 2026, I voted that officials be required to honor the voters’ will. I hear rumor this is known elsewhere as “representative government”. It’s a novel concept, especially in St. Louis, where my House representative is funded by donors who serve a foreign country. On the same day, I voted — again — to protect my body from state control. This is the second time I’ve done that in two years. Both votes went my way.

Folks say I’ve got my body and my constitution back. I say, we’ll see in January.

Missouri is the bellwether state. Missouri is a trigger state. But its official motto is “The Show-Me State.” In 1899, Congressman Willard Duncan Vandiver declared to fancy Philadelphians, “I’m from a state that raises corn, cotton, cockleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither convinces nor satisfies me. I’m from Missouri. You have got to show me.”

Missouri is so thoroughly built on the expectation that everyone in power is a liar that we tack this motto on our license plates and drive to polling places where we demand to have our stated choice made law. Nothing goes without saying. We don’t believe it until we see it, and we assume a win may be retracted on a whim.

In Missouri, election season and hunting season are at the same time of year.

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Don’t get me wrong — I’m proud of the midterm results and proud of my state. Not for anything I did, but that others fought a Sisyphean battle. They got to the top of the mountain and let everyone see clear the lay of the land.

I’m proud of Texas. I’m proud of Michigan. I’m proud of the South. I’m proud of Missouri, which I love very much. Of course I love Missouri: why else would I be so angry when officials hurt its people while claiming to serve them? My state is not my government. The same is true of the whole US. Everyone knows that, now.

Missouri makes you a realist. I’m watching that mountain top, waiting for the rock to roll down and run us over come January. Maybe it won’t. It feels different this time, even here. Had Missouri a 2026 Senate or governor race, a Democrat may have won by sheer momentum. In Missouri’s 2nd district, Fred Wellman, a Democrat, unexpectedly ousted a long-loathed Republican.

Most voters in Missouri are independents, as are most voters in the US. We are the United States of the Betrayed. The midterm results reject GOP oppression, but that doesn’t equal an embrace of the Democratic Party: not without major changes.

Future Democratic House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries — a confidante of Jared Kushner and an abettor of genocide — is already implying he doesn’t feel it necessary to honor the voters’ will. This is an all-too-familiar refrain for folks who live under GOP legislatures. It makes no difference when it’s a Democrat singing the tune.

I’d love to get behind the paywalls and the propaganda to see how this election was won. But I live in a technofascist oligarchy: data is in short supply. Like a true Missourian, I only know what I see. I didn’t hear any national Democrats talking about the ballot initiatives that determined my freedom. I heard them trashing the folks who knocked on my door one day to make sure I knew.

On my porch were two youths. A boy and a girl, bright-eyed and shiny as a Mentos commercial. “Mormons,” I thought. I opened the door. I welcome attempts at conversion; they let me tally what parts of myself I would give away.

The youths said they were from the DSA: the group both Democrats and Republicans decry as fearsome and wily socialists. The youths smiled and offered a sample ballot for my keeping. They explained to me my rights in plain language. I pretended I did not know who I was.

“No on 3, Yes on 6!” they said cheerfully, referring to the bodily autonomy initiative and the initiative that says, Hey you really need to do it this time.

Shame that officials deem these folks a threat instead of the invasive Flock camera installed down the street recording their door-to-door civic virtue.

My guess is that youth and independent voters caused the “blue” wave, along with voters appalled by unceasing corruption, war, and the abandonment of ordinary Americans in favor of foreign states and wealthy elites. The cost of living is too high: the material cost, the psychic cost. The latter is hardest to bear. How many people have we seen murdered on our phones since 2025?

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I’ve got more to say, but I’ll say it another day. Many writers I respect say they feel an unfamiliar exhaustion. Not one born of agony or anxiety, but of shock, and gratitude, and knowledge that we’re not alone in seeing what’s happening. A Langston Hughes bone-weariness coupled with a Langston Hughes longing for the land that’s never been but may still be. Langston Hughes, child of Missouri, poet of America.

As Missouri shows, votes are only as good as the officials who honor them. Constitutions are pieces of paper unless they are put into practice. But ordinary people are stubborn, and brave, and they look out for each other.

The fight for our country’s freedom is far from over. We are still battling corrupt actors in two parties, many of whom are funded by the same donors.

But nothing can change that our will was heard. The midterm results mitigate a threat about which I’ve long worried: the attempt to harden “red state” and “blue state” designations so that it will be easier for operatives to divide our country and sell it for parts — much like in the former USSR.

The Trump administration and various plutocrats are already doing the latter. But formal partition would have sped it up and broken the bonds of family, friends, and countrymen. Texas, especially, renders toxic “national divorce” rhetoric moot. The culture war has failed: people can see each other past the algorithms.

I’ll leave you with the words I wrote the morning after the results, when I didn’t want to ruin anyone’s good time. I mean them still. But remember, even in your excitement: They have got to show you. You deserve nothing less.

My initial thoughts about the midterms:

May the midterms end the propaganda lie of “red” and “blue” states — conjured in the 2000 election and weaponized. As I’ve said: There is no such thing as a “red” or “blue” state: America is purple, purple like a bruise.

Let the powerful turn of Texas shatter stereotypes. Let the wave of wins elsewhere destroy excuses for abandonment. Americans have been subject to a top-down assault by criminal elites. We remain under assault. Pundits blamed the victims below instead of GOP abusers and Vichy Dem enablers above. They lied and said Texas and the South deserved a cruel fate.

Now pundits are shocked about folks whose strength was evident the whole time. I hope those pundits swallow their forked tongues and choke on them.

Respect to the shunned who fight because we know our own worth — including my fellow Missourians. The midterms were a battle in an ongoing war. You redrew the battle lines in the public imagination. Imagination is a wonder; in a kleptocracy, it is a weapon. You can’t vote out the mafia. But you can change the nature of the battlefield. You just did.

I’m not going to sugarcoat the threat we face, which goes beyond electoral politics. But I hope folks feel proud — not just for last night, but for making it through these terrible years, and for standing up for each other.

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Sarah Kendzior’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

 
     

Facing an electoral wipeout, Trump goes after the system

Heather Cox Richardson | Letters from an American

HCR
Heather Cox Richardson

Oct 26, 2026

Trump’s increasingly erratic and corrupt behavior condemns Republican leaders who continue to support him.

At 8:00 last night, he posted on social media his longest entry ever: an emotional 1,323-word screed attacking late-night host Bill Maher. While the screed was directed at the comedian, it seemed really to be a cry of fury at his loss of control over his base and over the country.

Giant turnout for rallies by former president Barack Obama in Ohio and Michigan on Saturday illustrated the changing mood of the country. In Cleveland, Obama rallied voters behind Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton. In Michigan he rallied voters for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s current secretary of state, and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed.

Obama told attendees that El-Sayed is “fighting for change, real change, that will get money out of politics and put money in your pocket” and would “finish the job we started with the Affordable Care Act and guarantee quality, affordable healthcare to every single American.” He called out Trump’s corruption, “enriching himself and his family” and “selling favors.”

Obama’s jokes were even more calculated to get under Trump’s skin. As Joseph Gedeon of the Guardian reported, Obama mocked Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s fascination with testosterone levels and asked: “How much time do you think this man spends in front of the mirror every day?” He belittled Trump’s fight with “that well-known evil empire, Canada,” a poke reminding listeners that President Ronald Reagan had called Russia an “evil empire” while Trump is now in league with that regime. And Obama poked fun at Trump’s White House projects, saying “he should be on HGTV,” a cable network that focuses on home improvement and interior design.

Perhaps even more galling to Trump were the images that circulated on social media of Obama’s packed venues, comparing them to the dwindling crowds at Trump’s.

Trump’s post about Maher listed Trump’s own triumphs, beginning with The Apprentice, and claimed that Maher has been “DESPARATELY” [sic] begging him to come on his own show. Trump then tore into the idea that Trump’s popularity has dropped so far that even Republicans are abandoning him, reiterating that a CNN poll showed “I’m at 98 and 99% support within the Republican Party, an All Time Record High,” higher even than Reagan’s high-water mark.

The post felt frantic. In fact, the CNN poll to which Trump referred measured his popularity among his own base of self-identified MAGA Republicans, not the Republican Party as a whole. Trump went on to post videos to reinforce his claims.

Trump’s determination to keep Republicans in control of Congress seems to be about more than his refusal to accept that he isn’t always the winner. Since January, he has been warning that if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, they will impeach him. Increasingly, it seems he is concerned about what such hearings will uncover.

On Saturday the Washington Sun reported that the White House has been evaluating whether to issue a blanket pardon for all junior staffers. Such a move would take away their incentive to cooperate with investigations, but it would also remove their ability to refuse to speak under their Fifth Amendment protections against self-incrimination.

The administration is already trying to hide documents, emails, and texts between Trump’s hand-picked Kennedy Center director Matt Floca and Trump’s executive assistant Natalie Harp about Trump’s sabotage of the Kennedy Center. They are also trying to shield messages between Floca and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the Kennedy Center when Lutnick was acting for Trump in discussions about the performance center.

Zach Everson of Public Citizen noted that Trump’s hotel in Washington, D.C., opened ten years ago today, and Republicans’ refusal to condemn the flood of money into that enterprise to buy his goodwill convinced him that there would be no repercussions for grifting off the presidency. Everson notes that at the opening Trump said, “Today’s a metaphor for what we can accomplish in this country,” and now, ten years later, he has made more than $1.4 billion off crypto while investors have lost $4.8 billion.

On Thursday a shareholder of a publicly traded U.S. crypto company sued Trump and his family’s World Liberty Financial crypto company. The lawsuit accuses Trump and the company “corruptly profiting” off more than $2 billion in crypto deals, including a deal that violates the Constitution’s prohibition on accepting gifts from foreign countries: a $500 million investment made by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who is the brother of the current president of the United Arab Emirates and who manages a UAE sovereign wealth fund.

Today Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee released a report saying that a “growing body of evidence demonstrates that Donald Trump was an active participant in Jeffrey Epstein’s sexual abuse of young women during the mid-to-late 1990s. The Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) are doing everything they can to keep the American people in the dark about it.” The report offered new information from Beatrice Keul, a former Miss Switzerland, who says Trump used a pageant at the Plaza Hotel in New York City as a “hunting ground” to prey on young victims and that Trump raped her there in 1993, leaving her bleeding and bruised.

At a rally yesterday, Trump told attendees if the Democrats win the midterms, “you will only have yourselves to blame.”

And so, he and his allies are trying to put their finger on the scales against Democratic voters.

Bill Allison and Dana Hull of Bloomberg reported on October 22 that billionaire Elon Musk, whose companies depend on U.S. government contracts, has poured at least $445 million (not a typo) into the Republican effort to keep control of Congress. That money is swamping Democratic candidates, who nonetheless are holding on to a significant percentage of the vote.

So, last Thursday, the Trump administration sued the state of Alaska and its election officials personally to try to stop the certification of the U.S. Senate election there if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Unless the Republican incumbent, Senator Dan Sullivan, wins, the Department of Justice says, state officials must not accept the results.

The Republicans’ complaint is that a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan is also on the ballot, and they are currently claiming that if the Republican incumbent loses it will be as a result of voter confusion. But the Alaska Supreme Court has already rejected a Republican attempt to get Daniel J. Sullivan removed, and the Alaska Republican Party chose how to identify the two Sullivans: the incumbent is listed as the Republican incumbent while the other Sullivan is listed without a party affiliation.

On Friday, Trump told reporters that he, personally, demanded the lawsuit.

On Saturday, in an article in Politico titled “Facing an electoral wipeout, Trump goes after the system,” Andrew Howard, Erin Doherty, Alec Hernandez, Samuel Benson, and Lauren Fedor reminded readers that under Trump, the Justice Department has tried to get access to state voter files—so far, it has lost every case—and Trump has vowed to refuse to distribute federal funds to state and local governments that won’t make the changes he demands in election procedures.

As Zolan Kanno-Youngs of the New York Times noted on Sunday, Trump has also tried to use the United States Postal Service to screen ballots with the potential for rejecting tens of thousands of them. Now the Justice Department is trying to force California election officials to set aside ballots it claims were sent to 20,000 noncitizens, warning the officials they could be prosecuted if they don’t help the federal government identify alien voters.

California officials said the federal government has no authority to oversee their voter lists and note that the federal government has made false accusations against states. In July, officials from the Department of Homeland Security publicly told Nevada officials they had found nearly 16,000 noncitizens on the state’s voter rolls, but ultimately, they could not provide evidence of even one.

On October 22, Madeleine May of CBS News reported that ICE agents, armed and in uniform, are knocking on doors in at least six states—California, Georgia, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin—to ask residents about their immigration status and whether they have either registered to vote or voted in past elections.

It is a crime to vote in federal elections if you are not a U.S. citizen, and the number of times such votes are cast is vanishingly low. As May notes, since the second Trump administration began it has charged—not obtained convictions, charged—just 156 people out of 227 million registered voters.

But Trump has made the Big Lie that Democrats win elections only through fraud central to his hopes of keeping MAGA in control of the government, and he is weaponizing the government against his political opponents by using the idea of illegal voting as justification for trying to intimidate lawful voters. It is a tactic straight out of the Reconstruction South, when gangs of white supremacists, often organized as the Ku Klux Klan, visited Republican voters before elections to make it clear their survival depended on staying away from the polls.

Even so, the Alaska suit was a new level of election interference and may reflect the recently exposed story that the administration is backing the sale of a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska to a sanctioned Russian company. Such a plan will be harder to pull off if there is a Democratic senator in the state conducting oversight.

This transparent attempt to steal the election is unlikely to succeed in court, but it is another way for Trump to sow confusion over the elections and lay the groundwork for challenging a Democratic victory. This afternoon, Trump continued that effort by posting on social media a vow that sounded even more desperate than his repeated promises to pay Americans $5,000 if the Republicans win the midterms. “Anybody reporting Voter Fraud in the past Elections, or the upcoming 2026 Midterm Election,” he wrote, “will be paid $1,000,000 upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the Fraud!”

Source: Heather Cox Richardson | Letters from an American